Wednesday, November 5, 2008

An Historic Day, but Also Proof There is More Work to Be Done

Barack Obama was overwhelmingly named the 44th President of the United States of America last night in an election that will always be remembered for the historical implications of the nation's first African American president just forty years after black people in this country weren't allowed to drink at the same water fountain as white people, weren't allowed to use the same restroom, weren't allowed to sit at the front of the bus. Forty years ago a movement started that hoped to change all of that, a man stood in front of the nation and said that he believed one day it would change, he told us of his dream for this nation and I believe that last night is part of what he envisioned. I wish that he could have been there to see it. Nothing can take away how important that is and how monumental last night was in regards to where this country has been on the issue of race historically.

But at the same time, last night showed us how far we still have to go when it comes to civil rights.

Arizona Proposition 102, Ban on Gay Marriages, passed.

Arkansas Initiative 1, Ban on Gay Couples Adopting Children, passed.

Florida Amendment 2, Ban on Gay Marriages, passed.

And California Proposition 8, A Constitutional Amendment to Ban Gay Marriages, which the State Supreme Court recognized recently as being against the State Constitution, looks as if it too will pass, though the vote is at this point still considered too close to call.

Forty years ago electing a man who happened to be black would have been unthinkable, yesterday it came to pass in the highest office in the land. But today, civil rights are still being denied to people, different people, perhaps, but no less human and no less deserving of civil rights whatever your view on their sexual orientation might be.

As ecstatic and proud as I am for the results in the Presidential election yesterday, I am equally ashamed of this country and its voters for the ballots denying equality to a portion of its populace.

We still have a lot of work to do.

As disappointed as I am, however, there is some hope for the future.

According to CNN.com exit polls, voters 18-29, the future of this country, in Arizona voted against Proposition 102 52% to 48%. Voters 18-29 in Arkansas voted against Initiative 1 54% to 46%. White voters 18-29 in Florida voted against Amendment 2 51% to 49%. And California voters 18-29 voted overwhelmingly against Proposition 8 63% to 37%.

I truly believe that as today's young voters become the majority and are joined by new young voters who believe in civil rights for all even more ardently then the generations just before them, change will come here as well.

There is more work to be done, but perhaps we are beginning to have the people capable of making that change in position to do so. And ourselves as young voters more then any other people, elected or otherwise. This country belongs to us. Its future belongs to us. And yesterday we began to show that we, the young voters, are ready to do what is necessary to make this country everything it can be and to give everyone, everyone, the rights that they deserve.

Yes We Can.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

President Elect Barack Obama

As I type this I watch the families of Barack Obama and Joe Biden on stage in Grant Park in my home town of Chicago, Illinois, where I was born and lived through my formative years. I wish I could be there tonight to take part in this amazing moment, but still feel a part of things down here in Red Texas in a county that voted predominately Republican. I feel as though I had a part in this campaign, something I have never really felt for any person that I've voted for before.

History will remember this election for the fact that Obama is the first African American candidate that was elected President, but to me he is so much more then that. I believe that this candidate signals a return to a government of the people and for the people, a government that more closely resembles the government that the founders of our great nation had in mind when they broke away from England over 232 years ago.

These last eight years especially, the government has not truly reflected the desires, beliefs, or morals of the majority of this nation. I truly believe that with this historic election that will begin to change.

Obama stands at 338 in the electoral count, and North Carolina, Indiana, and Montana all have him leading, but are too close to call. If all three do end up going to Obama, then he will have won 370 electoral votes, 100 more then are needed to become president. Despite the lead that Obama seemed to have in polls coming into election day, a win of that magnitude would be unbelievable.

The things I have done throughout the campaign that Barack Obama has run, the part I played as a donor, as an Obama supporter who spoke of my reasons and feelings to others, and as a delegate that literally single handily won Barack Obama votes in the Texas PrimaCaucaus, I am extremely proud. Tonight will be a moment I will always remember. It is a moment that I will claim for the rest of my life as one of the most significant that I have been a part of.

At this point I want to say thank you to everyone around this country that helped bring about this change in such a large and commanding fashion. This election is truly ours as no election has been in my lifetime. If not for the actions of so many people like myself around this great country of ours, this night would not be possible.

I look forward to the moment when around the world our status is once again that of a world leader as opposed to a country that so many other nations throughout the world distrust and find it hard to respect. The fact that we elected this man and did so in the manner that we did (no need for any recounts or lawsuits this time around) has put a new face on our fine country and I am once again proud to say that I am an American and I am part of a Change that we can believe in, all of us, everywhere, Yes We Can. Yes We Did.

Amen.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Election Day, What to Watch for in the Senate Races

A lot has been made about the possibility of the Democrats reaching a filibuster proof majority of 60 in the Senate. It is very unlikely at this point that that will happen. There are, however, a number of close races in the Senate that bear watching.

In case you haven't felt like looking up this information for yourself, I've decided to put it all right here so you can keep up with the Senate races on Election night just as easily as seeing which States go for which candidate in the electoral college for the Presidential Election.

Each two years, 1/3 of the Senate seats come up for election. This year there are also two seats up in special elections.

Eleven of the seats up this election cycle currently belong to Democrats. All 11 seats will most likely stay Democratic as all of the incumbent Democrats hold sizable leads in polls.

Eighteen of the seats up for reelection belong to Republicans. Ten of those seats will remain Republican.

Jeff Sessions-Alabama
Pat Roberts-Kansas
Susan Collins-Maine
Thad Cochran-Mississippi
Jim Inhofe-Oklahoma
Lindsey Graham-South Carolina
Lamar Alexander-Tennessee
John Cornyn-Texas (despite my vote for Rick Noriega)
Michael Enzi-Wyoming
and John Barrasso-Wyoming (in a Special Election to replace Craig Thomas(R))

There are also five seats that were held by Republicans who are not seeking reelection. Of those five, the Republican nominee will likely hold onto the seat in two of the races, Jim Risch(R) of Idaho in place of Larry Craig(R) and Mike Johanns(R) of Nebraska in place of Chuck Hagel(R). The Democrats look like they will gain three seats in the other races. Mark Udall(D) over Bob Schaffer(R) in Colorado to replace Wayne Allard, Tom Udall(D) over Steve Pearce(R) to replace Pete Domenici(R) in New Mexico (Tom Udall of NM and Mark Udall of CO are cousins), and Mark Warner(D) over Jim Gilmore(R) to replace John Warner(R) (and no relation to Mark Warner) in Virginia.

So there are three seats that the Democrats will gain, added to the 49 that they currently hold it brings the number to 52.

Of the eight remaining seats held by Republican incumbents, Jeanne Shaheen(D) will unseat Senator John Sununu(R) of New Hampshire, bringing the number to 53.

Jeff Merkley(D) of Oregon also holds a sizable lead over Senator Gordon Smith(R) 47.0% to 41.7% (according to the polling average on FiveThirtyEight.com) this seat will likely go Democratic bringing the total to 54, but is worth keeping an eye on.

Senator Mitch McConnell(R) of Kentucky, on the other hand, will likely hold on to his seat over challenger Bruce Lunsford(D). FiveThirtyEight.com shows him with a 48.2% to 43.8% lead in the polls.

Likewise, Senator Roger Wicker(R) of Mississippi will hold onto the seat formally held by Trent Lott in a special election against challenger Ronnie Musgrove. FiveThirtyEight.com shows Wicker with a 50.5% to 42.4% lead in the polls.

So at this point we can safely count on the Democrats having 54 seats, now....

The Races to Watch

In Georgia, Senator Saxby Chambliss(R) is in a tight race with Jim Martin(D) and holds a slight lead in the polls 47.3% to 43.5%, but the reason that this is an important race to watch is that if neither candidate gets over 50% of the vote there will be a runoff on December 2 without the third party candidates which will likely favor Martin's bid.

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was just found guilty of fraud by accepting gifts including free work on his house. Partly due to this he has found himself in quite a race with Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Begich, in fact, now holds a sizable lead in the polls taken after the announcement of a Guilty finding, 55.2% to 39.8% and it appears increasingly likely that this will become seat number 55 for the Democrats.

In North Carolina there has been a lot of news about Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole's airing of a campaign ad accusing challenger Kay Hagen(D) of being "Godless" due to a campaign contribution made by an Atheist group. This dirty, negative ad appears to have backfired, however, as Hagen has made some gains in the extremely tight race. Polls show her leading 46.4% to 43.2%.

In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman has found himself in a tight race with comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken (probably best known for his time as head writer on Saturday Night Live and as Stuart "I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and dog-gone it, people like me" Smalley). This race is officially a toss up and a virtual tie and could go either way tomorrow. Polls show Franken has a minuscule (practically nonexistent) lead 39.5% to 39.4%.

So, if the Democrats somehow manage to win each of these four "Races to Watch", they would hold 58 seats to the Republicans 40. If you add in the two Independent Senators who often vote with the Democratic block, then it is virtually the 60 seats needed to block a filibuster (aka the Magic 60). Although, this is not as strong a 60 as the Democrats would prefer considering one of those Independents is Joe Lieberman who campaigned for John McCain, and there is no guarantee that the two Independents will vote with the Democrats. At any rate, the Democrats winning all four of the "Races to Watch" remains a long shot. It will definitely be worth keeping an eye on along with the Presidential results, however.