A lot has been made about the possibility of the Democrats reaching a filibuster proof majority of 60 in the Senate. It is very unlikely at this point that that will happen. There are, however, a number of close races in the Senate that bear watching.
In case you haven't felt like looking up this information for yourself, I've decided to put it all right here so you can keep up with the Senate races on Election night just as easily as seeing which States go for which candidate in the electoral college for the Presidential Election.
Each two years, 1/3 of the Senate seats come up for election. This year there are also two seats up in special elections.
Eleven of the seats up this election cycle currently belong to Democrats. All 11 seats will most likely stay Democratic as all of the incumbent Democrats hold sizable leads in polls.
Eighteen of the seats up for reelection belong to Republicans. Ten of those seats will remain Republican.
Jeff Sessions-Alabama
Pat Roberts-Kansas
Susan Collins-Maine
Thad Cochran-Mississippi
Jim Inhofe-Oklahoma
Lindsey Graham-South Carolina
Lamar Alexander-Tennessee
John Cornyn-Texas (despite my vote for Rick Noriega)
Michael Enzi-Wyoming
and John Barrasso-Wyoming (in a Special Election to replace Craig Thomas(R))
There are also five seats that were held by Republicans who are not seeking reelection. Of those five, the Republican nominee will likely hold onto the seat in two of the races, Jim Risch(R) of Idaho in place of Larry Craig(R) and Mike Johanns(R) of Nebraska in place of Chuck Hagel(R). The Democrats look like they will gain three seats in the other races. Mark Udall(D) over Bob Schaffer(R) in Colorado to replace Wayne Allard, Tom Udall(D) over Steve Pearce(R) to replace Pete Domenici(R) in New Mexico (Tom Udall of NM and Mark Udall of CO are cousins), and Mark Warner(D) over Jim Gilmore(R) to replace John Warner(R) (and no relation to Mark Warner) in Virginia.
So there are three seats that the Democrats will gain, added to the 49 that they currently hold it brings the number to 52.
Of the eight remaining seats held by Republican incumbents, Jeanne Shaheen(D) will unseat Senator John Sununu(R) of New Hampshire, bringing the number to 53.
Jeff Merkley(D) of Oregon also holds a sizable lead over Senator Gordon Smith(R) 47.0% to 41.7% (according to the polling average on FiveThirtyEight.com) this seat will likely go Democratic bringing the total to 54, but is worth keeping an eye on.
Senator Mitch McConnell(R) of Kentucky, on the other hand, will likely hold on to his seat over challenger Bruce Lunsford(D). FiveThirtyEight.com shows him with a 48.2% to 43.8% lead in the polls.
Likewise, Senator Roger Wicker(R) of Mississippi will hold onto the seat formally held by Trent Lott in a special election against challenger Ronnie Musgrove. FiveThirtyEight.com shows Wicker with a 50.5% to 42.4% lead in the polls.
So at this point we can safely count on the Democrats having 54 seats, now....
The Races to Watch
In Georgia, Senator Saxby Chambliss(R) is in a tight race with Jim Martin(D) and holds a slight lead in the polls 47.3% to 43.5%, but the reason that this is an important race to watch is that if neither candidate gets over 50% of the vote there will be a runoff on December 2 without the third party candidates which will likely favor Martin's bid.
Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was just found guilty of fraud by accepting gifts including free work on his house. Partly due to this he has found himself in quite a race with Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Begich, in fact, now holds a sizable lead in the polls taken after the announcement of a Guilty finding, 55.2% to 39.8% and it appears increasingly likely that this will become seat number 55 for the Democrats.
In North Carolina there has been a lot of news about Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole's airing of a campaign ad accusing challenger Kay Hagen(D) of being "Godless" due to a campaign contribution made by an Atheist group. This dirty, negative ad appears to have backfired, however, as Hagen has made some gains in the extremely tight race. Polls show her leading 46.4% to 43.2%.
In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman has found himself in a tight race with comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken (probably best known for his time as head writer on Saturday Night Live and as Stuart "I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and dog-gone it, people like me" Smalley). This race is officially a toss up and a virtual tie and could go either way tomorrow. Polls show Franken has a minuscule (practically nonexistent) lead 39.5% to 39.4%.
So, if the Democrats somehow manage to win each of these four "Races to Watch", they would hold 58 seats to the Republicans 40. If you add in the two Independent Senators who often vote with the Democratic block, then it is virtually the 60 seats needed to block a filibuster (aka the Magic 60). Although, this is not as strong a 60 as the Democrats would prefer considering one of those Independents is Joe Lieberman who campaigned for John McCain, and there is no guarantee that the two Independents will vote with the Democrats. At any rate, the Democrats winning all four of the "Races to Watch" remains a long shot. It will definitely be worth keeping an eye on along with the Presidential results, however.
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2 comments:
Excellent post. I wonder if the polls mathematically take into account the high numbers of new voters. For instance, in the case of Minnesota, if the state has had a large influx of new voters and most register as Democrats then vote with a straight ticket, it seems like that alone would tilt the race in favor of Franken. From what I understand, polls typically look at likely voters, generally those who have voted in the last couple of elections. New voters could be an unknown that throws off the polling for races farther down the ballot.
The polls I used from FiveThirtyEight.com use an average of a number of polls, so while most of them probably follow the old polling method of calling only likely voters some of them from what I understand do use newer methods of polling larger samples including using cell phones (which a lot of the new younger voters such as myself and yourself use exclusively), but it is still possible that a scenario such as the one you pointed out could come to be. At least we can hope. Should be very exciting to watch tonight.
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