Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Well, that was exciting to say the least

Today's Quote of the Day

There is no greater impotence in all the world like knowing you are right and that the wave of the world is wrong, yet the wave crashes upon you.
Norman Mailer


Do with that what you will.

So, onto the post, last night I didn't get to bed nearly as early as I was planning to, because I couldn't turn off CNN.

The longer I watched, the closer and closer the numbers were getting in Indiana. At one point the vote spread went from just under 40,000 to just under 20,000 in one quick swoop.

Why the sudden change? Why the drama? Lake County, Indiana.

To fully understand the drama, lets go back about 2 hours in time as Barack Obama then Hillary Clinton gave their election night speeches.

At the time, Senator Clinton had a large lead in Indiana, and while none of the networks were willing to call it in her favor, I don't think anyone seriously doubted she would win it, possibly by 10%. In Senator Obama's speach he congratulated her on what he called her "apparent victory in Indiana".

In Clinton's speech, she also claimed victory in Indiana. Meanwhile, we begin to hear from the Mayor of Gary, Indiana. He claims that when the numbers from his city come in, they will be overwhelmingly in favor of Obama, and that if an upset is to happen, it will be do to his county, Lake County.

Later, while looking at the map, it turns out that while 85% of the vote is in and Clinton is up 52% to 48% and by just under 40,000 votes, none of that vote is from Lake County.

Not only is it expected that Obama is going to do extremely well in Gary, but he is expected to do well throughout the county.

Why?

It is the most northwestern county putting it as practically a suburb of Chicago, the home of Barack Obama.

Suddenly, as they were talking about the county on CNN, the first results from there came in. 28% of the vote reported and Obama had a 75% to 35% lead there and a 20,000 vote advantage.

Now, Indiana was a virtual tie. Clinton's lead was down to under 20,000 votes with 72% of the vote still to come in Lake County and 9% of the vote still to come throughout the state, with the outstanding votes almost all coming from areas that Barack Obama was winning.

It turned out that that first 28% reported was all from Gary, Indiana, the area where Obama had the largest support in the county. Clinton had a very slight advantage throughout the rest of the county, slowly taking down that huge advantage, meaning that, as it stands right now with 99% of the vote reporting, she is up in the state by only 18,444 votes.

Whereas in North Carolina, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Obama won the popular vote by 232,775 votes.

In the delegate count, his pledged lead grew thanks to a huge victory in North Carolina and a virtual tie in Indiana, and his lead in the popular vote went up by 214,331 votes.

While Clinton vows to fight on despite barely having an argument on which to stand any longer, the belief is starting to grow that it will be impossible for the Democratic nominee to be anyone other then Barack Obama.

Despite what Clinton might be saying this morning about "tie-breakers", the truth is that yesterday was a very good day for Barack Obama.

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