As I type this I watch the families of Barack Obama and Joe Biden on stage in Grant Park in my home town of Chicago, Illinois, where I was born and lived through my formative years. I wish I could be there tonight to take part in this amazing moment, but still feel a part of things down here in Red Texas in a county that voted predominately Republican. I feel as though I had a part in this campaign, something I have never really felt for any person that I've voted for before.
History will remember this election for the fact that Obama is the first African American candidate that was elected President, but to me he is so much more then that. I believe that this candidate signals a return to a government of the people and for the people, a government that more closely resembles the government that the founders of our great nation had in mind when they broke away from England over 232 years ago.
These last eight years especially, the government has not truly reflected the desires, beliefs, or morals of the majority of this nation. I truly believe that with this historic election that will begin to change.
Obama stands at 338 in the electoral count, and North Carolina, Indiana, and Montana all have him leading, but are too close to call. If all three do end up going to Obama, then he will have won 370 electoral votes, 100 more then are needed to become president. Despite the lead that Obama seemed to have in polls coming into election day, a win of that magnitude would be unbelievable.
The things I have done throughout the campaign that Barack Obama has run, the part I played as a donor, as an Obama supporter who spoke of my reasons and feelings to others, and as a delegate that literally single handily won Barack Obama votes in the Texas PrimaCaucaus, I am extremely proud. Tonight will be a moment I will always remember. It is a moment that I will claim for the rest of my life as one of the most significant that I have been a part of.
At this point I want to say thank you to everyone around this country that helped bring about this change in such a large and commanding fashion. This election is truly ours as no election has been in my lifetime. If not for the actions of so many people like myself around this great country of ours, this night would not be possible.
I look forward to the moment when around the world our status is once again that of a world leader as opposed to a country that so many other nations throughout the world distrust and find it hard to respect. The fact that we elected this man and did so in the manner that we did (no need for any recounts or lawsuits this time around) has put a new face on our fine country and I am once again proud to say that I am an American and I am part of a Change that we can believe in, all of us, everywhere, Yes We Can. Yes We Did.
Amen.
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Thursday, May 8, 2008
I Don't Want to Believe It, But It's Certainly Possible
Is "Operation Chaos" working?
For those of you who don't know (and Lord, how I wish I was one of you, but my boss loves that fat, druggie of a radio host, meaning occasionally I have to hear him) "Operation Chaos" is the name of Rush Limbaugh's project to keep the Democratic nomination process going as long as possible. He wants his listeners to cross party lines and vote for Hillary Clinton in order to keep Barack Obama from winning the nomination and the Democratic party from regrouping and focusing on John McCain.
I have no doubt that some of his listeners have responded, but I didn't think that it would have an actual effect on any of the races.
Some say that it did in Texas, where Rush has a lot of listeners, it's an open primary, and Hillary won a very close race.
I didn't start to believe it could effect a race until Indiana.
Again, it's an open primary and Hillary won a close race, a race decided by fewer then 20,000 votes. Numbers that I can believe listen to Rush and follow his Operation Chaos theory.
Add that to the fact that in exit polls up to 70% of Obama supporters say that they will vote for Clinton, but less then half of Clinton supporters say that they will vote for Obama. I wish the pollsters had asked a follow up question of those supporters. I wish they had asked if they would have vote for Clinton against McCain. I wouldn't be surprised to see that only 60% or so would say yes, the rest saying that they would vote for McCain.
It just doesn't make sense to me that a supporter of Clinton would not ultimately support the Democratic party. It actually makes more sense to me that Obama supporters would turn their back on the Clintons, because he's getting a lot of support from people who haven't voted before and aren't classical Democrats, but are people that believe in him as a change from the typical Politician. Yet 70% of his voters say they'd vote for Clinton while over half of those who voted for Clinton say they wouldn't vote for Obama.
That leads me to surmise that they probably wouldn't vote for her in the general election either.
For those of you who don't know (and Lord, how I wish I was one of you, but my boss loves that fat, druggie of a radio host, meaning occasionally I have to hear him) "Operation Chaos" is the name of Rush Limbaugh's project to keep the Democratic nomination process going as long as possible. He wants his listeners to cross party lines and vote for Hillary Clinton in order to keep Barack Obama from winning the nomination and the Democratic party from regrouping and focusing on John McCain.
I have no doubt that some of his listeners have responded, but I didn't think that it would have an actual effect on any of the races.
Some say that it did in Texas, where Rush has a lot of listeners, it's an open primary, and Hillary won a very close race.
I didn't start to believe it could effect a race until Indiana.
Again, it's an open primary and Hillary won a close race, a race decided by fewer then 20,000 votes. Numbers that I can believe listen to Rush and follow his Operation Chaos theory.
Add that to the fact that in exit polls up to 70% of Obama supporters say that they will vote for Clinton, but less then half of Clinton supporters say that they will vote for Obama. I wish the pollsters had asked a follow up question of those supporters. I wish they had asked if they would have vote for Clinton against McCain. I wouldn't be surprised to see that only 60% or so would say yes, the rest saying that they would vote for McCain.
It just doesn't make sense to me that a supporter of Clinton would not ultimately support the Democratic party. It actually makes more sense to me that Obama supporters would turn their back on the Clintons, because he's getting a lot of support from people who haven't voted before and aren't classical Democrats, but are people that believe in him as a change from the typical Politician. Yet 70% of his voters say they'd vote for Clinton while over half of those who voted for Clinton say they wouldn't vote for Obama.
That leads me to surmise that they probably wouldn't vote for her in the general election either.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Well, that was exciting to say the least
Today's Quote of the Day
Do with that what you will.
So, onto the post, last night I didn't get to bed nearly as early as I was planning to, because I couldn't turn off CNN.
The longer I watched, the closer and closer the numbers were getting in Indiana. At one point the vote spread went from just under 40,000 to just under 20,000 in one quick swoop.
Why the sudden change? Why the drama? Lake County, Indiana.
To fully understand the drama, lets go back about 2 hours in time as Barack Obama then Hillary Clinton gave their election night speeches.
At the time, Senator Clinton had a large lead in Indiana, and while none of the networks were willing to call it in her favor, I don't think anyone seriously doubted she would win it, possibly by 10%. In Senator Obama's speach he congratulated her on what he called her "apparent victory in Indiana".
In Clinton's speech, she also claimed victory in Indiana. Meanwhile, we begin to hear from the Mayor of Gary, Indiana. He claims that when the numbers from his city come in, they will be overwhelmingly in favor of Obama, and that if an upset is to happen, it will be do to his county, Lake County.
Later, while looking at the map, it turns out that while 85% of the vote is in and Clinton is up 52% to 48% and by just under 40,000 votes, none of that vote is from Lake County.
Not only is it expected that Obama is going to do extremely well in Gary, but he is expected to do well throughout the county.
Why?
It is the most northwestern county putting it as practically a suburb of Chicago, the home of Barack Obama.
Suddenly, as they were talking about the county on CNN, the first results from there came in. 28% of the vote reported and Obama had a 75% to 35% lead there and a 20,000 vote advantage.
Now, Indiana was a virtual tie. Clinton's lead was down to under 20,000 votes with 72% of the vote still to come in Lake County and 9% of the vote still to come throughout the state, with the outstanding votes almost all coming from areas that Barack Obama was winning.
It turned out that that first 28% reported was all from Gary, Indiana, the area where Obama had the largest support in the county. Clinton had a very slight advantage throughout the rest of the county, slowly taking down that huge advantage, meaning that, as it stands right now with 99% of the vote reporting, she is up in the state by only 18,444 votes.
Whereas in North Carolina, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Obama won the popular vote by 232,775 votes.
In the delegate count, his pledged lead grew thanks to a huge victory in North Carolina and a virtual tie in Indiana, and his lead in the popular vote went up by 214,331 votes.
While Clinton vows to fight on despite barely having an argument on which to stand any longer, the belief is starting to grow that it will be impossible for the Democratic nominee to be anyone other then Barack Obama.
Despite what Clinton might be saying this morning about "tie-breakers", the truth is that yesterday was a very good day for Barack Obama.
There is no greater impotence in all the world like knowing you are right and that the wave of the world is wrong, yet the wave crashes upon you.
Norman Mailer
Do with that what you will.
So, onto the post, last night I didn't get to bed nearly as early as I was planning to, because I couldn't turn off CNN.
The longer I watched, the closer and closer the numbers were getting in Indiana. At one point the vote spread went from just under 40,000 to just under 20,000 in one quick swoop.
Why the sudden change? Why the drama? Lake County, Indiana.
To fully understand the drama, lets go back about 2 hours in time as Barack Obama then Hillary Clinton gave their election night speeches.
At the time, Senator Clinton had a large lead in Indiana, and while none of the networks were willing to call it in her favor, I don't think anyone seriously doubted she would win it, possibly by 10%. In Senator Obama's speach he congratulated her on what he called her "apparent victory in Indiana".
In Clinton's speech, she also claimed victory in Indiana. Meanwhile, we begin to hear from the Mayor of Gary, Indiana. He claims that when the numbers from his city come in, they will be overwhelmingly in favor of Obama, and that if an upset is to happen, it will be do to his county, Lake County.
Later, while looking at the map, it turns out that while 85% of the vote is in and Clinton is up 52% to 48% and by just under 40,000 votes, none of that vote is from Lake County.
Not only is it expected that Obama is going to do extremely well in Gary, but he is expected to do well throughout the county.
Why?
It is the most northwestern county putting it as practically a suburb of Chicago, the home of Barack Obama.
Suddenly, as they were talking about the county on CNN, the first results from there came in. 28% of the vote reported and Obama had a 75% to 35% lead there and a 20,000 vote advantage.
Now, Indiana was a virtual tie. Clinton's lead was down to under 20,000 votes with 72% of the vote still to come in Lake County and 9% of the vote still to come throughout the state, with the outstanding votes almost all coming from areas that Barack Obama was winning.
It turned out that that first 28% reported was all from Gary, Indiana, the area where Obama had the largest support in the county. Clinton had a very slight advantage throughout the rest of the county, slowly taking down that huge advantage, meaning that, as it stands right now with 99% of the vote reporting, she is up in the state by only 18,444 votes.
Whereas in North Carolina, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Obama won the popular vote by 232,775 votes.
In the delegate count, his pledged lead grew thanks to a huge victory in North Carolina and a virtual tie in Indiana, and his lead in the popular vote went up by 214,331 votes.
While Clinton vows to fight on despite barely having an argument on which to stand any longer, the belief is starting to grow that it will be impossible for the Democratic nominee to be anyone other then Barack Obama.
Despite what Clinton might be saying this morning about "tie-breakers", the truth is that yesterday was a very good day for Barack Obama.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
The Eyes of the World are on Indiana and North Carolina
Who would have seen that coming at the beginning of this process?
The way things stand right now, Obama will win North Carolina (hopefully it will be by a big margin) and Clinton will win Indiana (but it's probably going to be very close).
For Clinton to realistically be able to claim victory, she would have to catch Obama in pledged delegates. To do that, Clinton would have to win the remaining states by 70%, which is extremely unlikely. There is no way that Clinton can match Obama in number of states won, although it is possible that she catches him in popular vote.
Despite the fact that it is nearly impossible to pass Obama at this stage for front runner status and that she is consistently polling as less likely to beat McCain, there is no indication that Clinton plans on stopping short of the convention.
Even if Obama sweeps tonight (which is far more possible then Clinton sweeping) I doubt that Clinton will concede.
For a time, I felt like this protracted race was good for the Democratic party, raising interest in the process, but now the future of the Country is at stake and Clinton is doing more harm then good in my opinion.
This race has been pretty much decided for some time, but she refuses to give up, and while admire that to some extent, this is far too important a time for the Country to be damaging any Democratic chance at the White House just because you don't want to lose.
My only hope is that when the Super Delegates decide the contest in Obama's favor (which is certainly the trend, as for the last couple of months, Obama has gained hundreds of Super Delegates while Clinton has lost some), Clinton will step aside without any more fighting. Then perhaps this prolonged fight will at least have one positive outcome by virtue of helping to prepare Obama for the race with McCain.
The way things stand right now, Obama will win North Carolina (hopefully it will be by a big margin) and Clinton will win Indiana (but it's probably going to be very close).
For Clinton to realistically be able to claim victory, she would have to catch Obama in pledged delegates. To do that, Clinton would have to win the remaining states by 70%, which is extremely unlikely. There is no way that Clinton can match Obama in number of states won, although it is possible that she catches him in popular vote.
Despite the fact that it is nearly impossible to pass Obama at this stage for front runner status and that she is consistently polling as less likely to beat McCain, there is no indication that Clinton plans on stopping short of the convention.
Even if Obama sweeps tonight (which is far more possible then Clinton sweeping) I doubt that Clinton will concede.
For a time, I felt like this protracted race was good for the Democratic party, raising interest in the process, but now the future of the Country is at stake and Clinton is doing more harm then good in my opinion.
This race has been pretty much decided for some time, but she refuses to give up, and while admire that to some extent, this is far too important a time for the Country to be damaging any Democratic chance at the White House just because you don't want to lose.
My only hope is that when the Super Delegates decide the contest in Obama's favor (which is certainly the trend, as for the last couple of months, Obama has gained hundreds of Super Delegates while Clinton has lost some), Clinton will step aside without any more fighting. Then perhaps this prolonged fight will at least have one positive outcome by virtue of helping to prepare Obama for the race with McCain.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Sorry For The Lack Of Posts
I've been sick all week, culminating in a rare (for me) visit to a physician.
It had been so long since I'd been to the doctor they said I was classified as a new patient again. This meant that not only was I sick and at one of my least favorite places in the world (the Doctor's office) but also that I had to do some "new patient" paperwork, this despite the fact that not too much has happened to me medically since my last visit. (Although to be fair it has been 6 years, so I guess they felt like something could have changed. It hadn't.)
Anyway, I'm still not feeling well, but now I have Doctor prescribed medications to help speed that recovery up (hopefully. Still waiting. Come on medication, work dammit).
To prove that I am still alive, despite not quite feeling like it, I felt like I should write some sort of post today.
If you missed it, Barack Obama was on Letterman last night giving the TOP TEN.
It was pretty funny. Here they are for your reading enjoyment.
It had been so long since I'd been to the doctor they said I was classified as a new patient again. This meant that not only was I sick and at one of my least favorite places in the world (the Doctor's office) but also that I had to do some "new patient" paperwork, this despite the fact that not too much has happened to me medically since my last visit. (Although to be fair it has been 6 years, so I guess they felt like something could have changed. It hadn't.)
Anyway, I'm still not feeling well, but now I have Doctor prescribed medications to help speed that recovery up (hopefully. Still waiting. Come on medication, work dammit).
To prove that I am still alive, despite not quite feeling like it, I felt like I should write some sort of post today.
If you missed it, Barack Obama was on Letterman last night giving the TOP TEN.
It was pretty funny. Here they are for your reading enjoyment.
10. My first act as President will be to stop the fighting between Lauren and Heidi on “The Hills.”
9. In the Illinois primary, I accidentally voted for Kucinich.
8. When I tell my kids to clean their room, I finish with, “I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message.”
7. Throughout high school, I was consistently voted “Barackiest.”
6. Earlier today I bowled a 39.
5. I have cancelled all my appearances the day the “Sex and the City” movie opens.
4. It’s the birthplace of Fred Astaire. (Sorry, that’s a surprising fact about Omaha)
3. We are tirelessly working to get the endorsement of Kentucky Derby favorite Colonel John.
2. This has nothing to do with the Top Ten, but what the heck is up with Paula Abdul?
1. I have not slept since October.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Some Political Stuff... Are You Surprised?
Well, always on the front curve of the news, I'm proud to announce that we here at Retrospective Reflections talked a little about the VP issue for John McCain before CNN.com. Unfortunately for us, CNN.com did it much better. Fortunately for you, however, here's the link to their story.
Pretty interesting list of names, including the four that we mentioned yesterday.
Back to the Democratic side, the race everyone is paying attention to is the upcoming vote in Pennsylvania.
Clinton had held a huge lead in the state, but as the date of the vote (April 22) gets closer, Clinton's lead has been shrinking.
In the latest polls from CNN.com, Clinton's lead is down to 4 points, 46% to 42%.
If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, it will be hard for her to justify staying in the race. Even if she wins there will be many calls for her to drop out unless she wins it significantly. A close vote that only gains her a few delegates won't help the fact that she is currently down 143 Delegates. She's behind by 171 pledged delegates, and her once large lead in the Super Delegate count is now only 28. The longer that Obama keeps a sizable delegate lead, the more Super Delegates go over to him.
I think that it is very possible that this could be decided by the end of the month, as it's beginning to look more and more inevitable that Barack Obama will win the nomination. Of course this race so far has been anything but normal.
Pretty interesting list of names, including the four that we mentioned yesterday.
Back to the Democratic side, the race everyone is paying attention to is the upcoming vote in Pennsylvania.
Clinton had held a huge lead in the state, but as the date of the vote (April 22) gets closer, Clinton's lead has been shrinking.
In the latest polls from CNN.com, Clinton's lead is down to 4 points, 46% to 42%.
If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, it will be hard for her to justify staying in the race. Even if she wins there will be many calls for her to drop out unless she wins it significantly. A close vote that only gains her a few delegates won't help the fact that she is currently down 143 Delegates. She's behind by 171 pledged delegates, and her once large lead in the Super Delegate count is now only 28. The longer that Obama keeps a sizable delegate lead, the more Super Delegates go over to him.
I think that it is very possible that this could be decided by the end of the month, as it's beginning to look more and more inevitable that Barack Obama will win the nomination. Of course this race so far has been anything but normal.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Never Thought I Would Say This, But Thank You Mike Huckabee
The big political news in regards to retrospective reflections backed Democratic Presidential canditate Barack Obama is the release of some of the sermons of his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
I've struggled with this, and haven't written about it before because the fact that this is even an issue angers me. It angers me to the point that I can't write about it coherently, it's much easier for me to resort to yelling at the racism of the media covering the issue, other candidates responses, and the stand my alma mater (TCU) took on the issue (which angers me the most). I would like to take a moment to give thanks to Brite Divinity School for their stand on the issue, refusing to back down on their desire to reward Rev. Wright for his 40 years of service to the African American community despite some "disturbing comments". Comments, I feel compelled to add, that if you are going to disparage you should at least look at them in regards to the sermons in full and not just on a YouTube video with the "offensive" comments taken completely out of context.
Before I start yelling incoherently again, let me get to the point of this post, normally I give you a quote of the day from a specific web based location, but today's quote of the day is one that I chose specifically instead of randomly.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
As easy as it is for those of us who are white to look back and say, "That's a terrible statement," I grew up in a very segregated South, and I think that you have to cut some slack. And I'm going to be probably the only conservative in America who's going to say something like this, but I'm just telling you: We've got to cut some slack to people who grew up being called names, being told, "You have to sit in the balcony when you go to the movie. You have to go to the back door to go into the restaurant. And you can't sit out there with everyone else. There's a separate waiting room in the doctor's office. Here's where you sit on the bus." And you know what? Sometimes people do have a chip on their shoulder and resentment. And you have to just say, I probably would too. I probably would too. In fact, I may have had ... more of a chip on my shoulder had it been me.
- Mike Huckabee, offering his perspective on the preaching of Rev. Jeremiah Wright
Mike Huckabee and I disagree on a great many things, but on this we are in step. He says it as well as I could hope to myself.
Thank you Mike Huckabee, thank you.
I've struggled with this, and haven't written about it before because the fact that this is even an issue angers me. It angers me to the point that I can't write about it coherently, it's much easier for me to resort to yelling at the racism of the media covering the issue, other candidates responses, and the stand my alma mater (TCU) took on the issue (which angers me the most). I would like to take a moment to give thanks to Brite Divinity School for their stand on the issue, refusing to back down on their desire to reward Rev. Wright for his 40 years of service to the African American community despite some "disturbing comments". Comments, I feel compelled to add, that if you are going to disparage you should at least look at them in regards to the sermons in full and not just on a YouTube video with the "offensive" comments taken completely out of context.
Before I start yelling incoherently again, let me get to the point of this post, normally I give you a quote of the day from a specific web based location, but today's quote of the day is one that I chose specifically instead of randomly.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
As easy as it is for those of us who are white to look back and say, "That's a terrible statement," I grew up in a very segregated South, and I think that you have to cut some slack. And I'm going to be probably the only conservative in America who's going to say something like this, but I'm just telling you: We've got to cut some slack to people who grew up being called names, being told, "You have to sit in the balcony when you go to the movie. You have to go to the back door to go into the restaurant. And you can't sit out there with everyone else. There's a separate waiting room in the doctor's office. Here's where you sit on the bus." And you know what? Sometimes people do have a chip on their shoulder and resentment. And you have to just say, I probably would too. I probably would too. In fact, I may have had ... more of a chip on my shoulder had it been me.
- Mike Huckabee, offering his perspective on the preaching of Rev. Jeremiah Wright
Mike Huckabee and I disagree on a great many things, but on this we are in step. He says it as well as I could hope to myself.
Thank you Mike Huckabee, thank you.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Thoughts on Ferraro's Comments
Comments made by former Vice Presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro have stirred up some controversy as well as brought race back into the race. Ferraro claimed that the only reason Obama is the democratic front runner is that he is a black man.
I personally believe that these comments are racist, although Ferraro has denied that and defended her claims. I'm not saying that Ferraro is a racist, merely that her comments are racist. I don't believe that the reason that Barack Obama is in the position that he is in has that much to do with his race. Does his race play some part of it? Sure, it's possible that part of the appeal of Obama is in the fact that he is a black man, but it is far more then that. I've spoken fairly extensively in this blog the reasons why I (a white male) support Barack Obama, and none of those reasons have anything to do with the color of his skin.
Earlier in the campaign, Bill Clinton compared this run by Obama to the 1984 run of Jesse Jackson (coincidently the same election in which Ferraro was chosen as the Vice Presidental mate to Walter Mondale). That comment raised some racial concerns as well and was quickly repudiated by both sides. I bring it up again to show the diferences between Obama's run for the nomination and that earlier run by Jackson. Jesse Jackson, like many people who run without much hope of winning, was running to bring notice to a particular issue. Barack Obama is running to win. His being black has nothing to do with it. Jackson, on the other hand, probably ran, in part, to show that a black man could run for president.
If there was truth to Ferraro's comments, then any particular black man could have been, and in fact would be had they run, in this exact position. This strikes me as "patently absurd" to use Senator Obama's words. Barack Obama is the right person at the right time. He's saying the right things and striking a cord with the American people that needed to be struck. The fact that he also happens to be black is not what has put him in this position and to imply that such is the case is a racist thing to do. I don't think that Ferraro is a racist, but her comments most certainly were.
I personally believe that these comments are racist, although Ferraro has denied that and defended her claims. I'm not saying that Ferraro is a racist, merely that her comments are racist. I don't believe that the reason that Barack Obama is in the position that he is in has that much to do with his race. Does his race play some part of it? Sure, it's possible that part of the appeal of Obama is in the fact that he is a black man, but it is far more then that. I've spoken fairly extensively in this blog the reasons why I (a white male) support Barack Obama, and none of those reasons have anything to do with the color of his skin.
Earlier in the campaign, Bill Clinton compared this run by Obama to the 1984 run of Jesse Jackson (coincidently the same election in which Ferraro was chosen as the Vice Presidental mate to Walter Mondale). That comment raised some racial concerns as well and was quickly repudiated by both sides. I bring it up again to show the diferences between Obama's run for the nomination and that earlier run by Jackson. Jesse Jackson, like many people who run without much hope of winning, was running to bring notice to a particular issue. Barack Obama is running to win. His being black has nothing to do with it. Jackson, on the other hand, probably ran, in part, to show that a black man could run for president.
If there was truth to Ferraro's comments, then any particular black man could have been, and in fact would be had they run, in this exact position. This strikes me as "patently absurd" to use Senator Obama's words. Barack Obama is the right person at the right time. He's saying the right things and striking a cord with the American people that needed to be struck. The fact that he also happens to be black is not what has put him in this position and to imply that such is the case is a racist thing to do. I don't think that Ferraro is a racist, but her comments most certainly were.
Monday, March 10, 2008
I Was Going to Post Something Non-Political, But Then...
I felt like doing something a little different today, since this blog has been so dominated by politics lately. I decided to check and see what the trusty Quote of the Day had to say, and I got this, which shows that the world is not ready for me to stop the Political Talk as of yet.
Today's Quote Of The Day...
"If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going."
-Professor Irwin Corey
I don't make these up, folks. I get them right here.
You can't tell me that this isn't a sign, a sign that retrospective reflections needs to continue its support of Senator Obama across the world wide web.
This weekend saw the Wyoming caucus, and another big win for Obama, who typically does better in the caucuses then Clinton has thus far. Tuesday is the Mississippi primary, and a chance for Barack Obama to fully regain the lead he had going into last Tuesday.
In other news, the Democratic party continues to look for ways to re-do the Michigan and Florida votes in a fair and affordable way. One possibility appears to be a mail-in vote, but there are problems to that as well it seems. This continues to be the most interesting story going on the Democratic side as Obama and Clinton look to try and win the nomination.
On the Republican side, McCain has won the requisite number of delegates and recieved an endorsement from President Bush (no word on whether he actually wanted it, however). Mike Huckabee who had been performing well in Republican races since Super Tuesday officially ended his campaign last Tuesday after McCain reached his magic number, apparently deciding that both math and miracles were against him now. Ron Paul, on the other hand, vowed that his campaign is never over, saying that he disagrees with McCain on many issues and is not likely to support him. Could he possibly be inclined to enter the race as a third party candidate (or maybe fourth party considering Nader has already thrown his hat into the ring)? Something else to watch, anyway.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Florida and Michigan and Super Delegates, Oh My
With the wins posted by Senator Clinton Tuesday night, an opportunity was wasted by Senator Obama to end things now and begin to focus the entire might of the Democratic Primary behind winning in November, now we still have some things to sort out first.
Let me start off by congratulating Senator Clinton on her wins in Rhode Island, Ohio, and the Texas Primary, as Senator Obama did himself in his speech that very night (something she rarely does, one of the many reasons I have lost the feelings I once had for her not very long ago). At worst, she stopped Senator Obama's momentum, at best, perhaps she gained some for herself.
But before we get too carried away with anything, Barack Obama came into last Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100 and he came out of Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100. In fact, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram believes that despite losing the popular vote in Texas (by less then 100,000 in a state where almost 3 million voted) he might come out of Texas with more delegates then his primary advisary.
So, sure, Hillary Clinton had a big night, a very important night for her if she wanted to keep her canidacy alive. But that's all she did, in my opinion, was keep her canidacy alive. She didn't become the front runner after that night. She didn't even really gain any ground on the front runner. She just kept from losing any.
What it really means is that it is going to be much harder for either of them to secure the nomination any time soon. This is shaping up to be a race to the very finish folks.
What becomes interesting are the varying factors that can help to decide it. I've spoken in this blog before about the Super Delegates, but we haven't really talked about the Strange Case of Florida and Michigan yet, so what do you say we do that now? Good.
Both Florida and Michigan signed the agreement with the National Democratic Party that they would abide by rules that stated primaries had to be held on or after Feb. 5th (aka Super Tuesday) with the exceptions being Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. However, both moved up their primaries in order to be important in the upcoming election. In punishment, both were stripped of Delegates in the nomination process causing them both to become pointless. The irony of course is that had they stayed in their normal places, both states would have been not only important, but, much like last Tuesday had the potential to be, critical. Instead they risked being a complete non-factor.
Hillary Clinton claims that since she won both of those primaries, the delegates should be counted and given to her. This is simply unfair, however, as she was the only major candidate on Michigan's ballot, and Barack Obama was given no opportunity to campaign in Florida (where Clinton is already well known, but at the time of the Florida primary, Obama was still relatively new to the nation). And with his ability to speak and the wonders he has already accomplished while campaigning, denying him that opportunity in Florida is completely unfair.
But, what it comes down to is that the delegates in Florida and Michigan might be very important in securing the nomination for one candidate or the other, and, after all, it isn't the fault of the voters that their party leaders tried to up the date against the rules. They shouldn't be penalized.
So, the answer on first glance seems obvious. Let's hold new primaries in each of the two states, with both Clinton and Obama given a chance to make their case to the voters. Oh, if only it were that simple. You see, primaries cost tax payers money. Money that tax payers have already spent on primaries in this very election season. Redoing them (while it seems logical) would require repaying for them, and let's face it, the economy ain't that great right now folks. (Thanks a lot, W. And McCain is promising more of the same, I'm just saying.) According to an article on cnn.com, Michigan's redo could cost approximently $10 million and Florida's could cost upwards of $25 million.
Everyone agrees that delegates in these states might have to count. It's the how that is the question and will bear watching as this race continues.
Let me start off by congratulating Senator Clinton on her wins in Rhode Island, Ohio, and the Texas Primary, as Senator Obama did himself in his speech that very night (something she rarely does, one of the many reasons I have lost the feelings I once had for her not very long ago). At worst, she stopped Senator Obama's momentum, at best, perhaps she gained some for herself.
But before we get too carried away with anything, Barack Obama came into last Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100 and he came out of Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100. In fact, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram believes that despite losing the popular vote in Texas (by less then 100,000 in a state where almost 3 million voted) he might come out of Texas with more delegates then his primary advisary.
So, sure, Hillary Clinton had a big night, a very important night for her if she wanted to keep her canidacy alive. But that's all she did, in my opinion, was keep her canidacy alive. She didn't become the front runner after that night. She didn't even really gain any ground on the front runner. She just kept from losing any.
What it really means is that it is going to be much harder for either of them to secure the nomination any time soon. This is shaping up to be a race to the very finish folks.
What becomes interesting are the varying factors that can help to decide it. I've spoken in this blog before about the Super Delegates, but we haven't really talked about the Strange Case of Florida and Michigan yet, so what do you say we do that now? Good.
Both Florida and Michigan signed the agreement with the National Democratic Party that they would abide by rules that stated primaries had to be held on or after Feb. 5th (aka Super Tuesday) with the exceptions being Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. However, both moved up their primaries in order to be important in the upcoming election. In punishment, both were stripped of Delegates in the nomination process causing them both to become pointless. The irony of course is that had they stayed in their normal places, both states would have been not only important, but, much like last Tuesday had the potential to be, critical. Instead they risked being a complete non-factor.
Hillary Clinton claims that since she won both of those primaries, the delegates should be counted and given to her. This is simply unfair, however, as she was the only major candidate on Michigan's ballot, and Barack Obama was given no opportunity to campaign in Florida (where Clinton is already well known, but at the time of the Florida primary, Obama was still relatively new to the nation). And with his ability to speak and the wonders he has already accomplished while campaigning, denying him that opportunity in Florida is completely unfair.
But, what it comes down to is that the delegates in Florida and Michigan might be very important in securing the nomination for one candidate or the other, and, after all, it isn't the fault of the voters that their party leaders tried to up the date against the rules. They shouldn't be penalized.
So, the answer on first glance seems obvious. Let's hold new primaries in each of the two states, with both Clinton and Obama given a chance to make their case to the voters. Oh, if only it were that simple. You see, primaries cost tax payers money. Money that tax payers have already spent on primaries in this very election season. Redoing them (while it seems logical) would require repaying for them, and let's face it, the economy ain't that great right now folks. (Thanks a lot, W. And McCain is promising more of the same, I'm just saying.) According to an article on cnn.com, Michigan's redo could cost approximently $10 million and Florida's could cost upwards of $25 million.
Everyone agrees that delegates in these states might have to count. It's the how that is the question and will bear watching as this race continues.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
A Cause to Caucus For
I'm watching the results slowly come in in my home state of Texas. While it has been called for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama could still get more delegates out of the state. It could be some time before we know what will happen there, but I know what happened in my county.
Hillary Clinton won the county 63% to 35%. A total of 4761 people in my county voted in the Democratic Primary. In the Republican Primary, a total of 7146 people voted.
100% of precincts in both have reported.
The numbers should give you some idea of what type of county I live in. It is small (comparitively) and strongly conservative. I have no doubt that there were a lot of Republicans crossing party lines to vote in the Democratic primary, and I have no doubt that a majority of them were voting for Hillary Clinton. But I also believe that there are far more Democrats in my county then people first assumed.
When I headed to my precinct in order to caucus (part two of the Texas Two Step) there were no parking places whatsoever. It was just before 7:00 when the polls were scheduled to close. Surely, I thought, this isn't just people waiting to vote?
As I parked, far away from where I was supposed to be, I saw in the distance lots of people hanging around outside. I walked up to them, trying to figure out exactly where I was supposed to be and who all these people were. As I listened to some of the conversation (and entered it occasionally) I realized that a lot of these people were Democrats.
There was still a long line inside the building containing our precinct of people trying to vote. We were told that we were not allowed inside until the voting finished. No one complained about this, I think we all understood it. The problem was that I don't think any of us were anticipating the fact that we would have to wait outside for quite some time and hadn't planned accordingly. It was a little cold. As we stood shivering looking 100 feet away at the building where people were voting we tried to tell from what we could see through the windows how many more people still had to vote.
Apparently, the precinct judge was worried about the large number of people standing outside. She called for some police help describing our shivering masses as a "angry mob".
The cop showed up and walked past us to the precinct where the door was unlocked and he was let in. We continued to shiver and talk amongst ourselves. A few minutes later he walked back outside. This was at 7:30. He came up very close to where I was standing and addressed us. He said that the precinct judge wanted us to make sure we were beyond the sign a full 100 feet from the doors. There was one person just on the precinct side of the sign. She quickly took the one step necessary to comply with the rules.
The cop said he hoped we would stay orderly as there were a lot more of us then there was of him. He said it should be fine as long as we didn't have pitchforks. I then responded that it might be helpful if we had some torches, just for warming purposes. I got a large laugh from that.
Finally, the last people finished voting. We still had to wait as they packed away the voting apparatus. Finally, the precinct judge called for the Democratic Precint Chair. She walked up the sidewalk and into the building. About a minute later, the precinct judge came back out and called for the Republican Precinct Chair. About a minute after that, the man who was the Republican Precinct Chair came back out and asked who all was there for the Republican Precinct Convention. Three of the nearly 100 people standing outside stepped forward. Everyone else there was there for the Democratic caucus. I was shocked. I didn't think there were that many Democrats in my county.
Finally, the rest of us were let inside at about 7:45. We were told that we had two small rooms, probably about 12 feet by 10 feet each, to hold nearly 100 people. Then we were told that there were only 5 sheets for us to sign with 12 spots on each one. That meant that there were only 60 slots for us and 30 some more people wanting to caucus. The precinct chair had to call the "hotline" in order to find out what to do about it. A majority of the people went into the room on the left (fitting I suppose since we're Democrats) but I and a few others went into the room on the right. Three of the sheets went into the room on the left, the other two went into the room I was in. I signed third on one of them, stating my preference for Barack Obama. Many people weren't exactly sure what it was we were doing, so I tried my best to answer the questions that people had. They seemed to understand as I did my best to explain the caucus process. Finally, the precinct chair recieved word that she could use notebook paper for those who couldn't fill out the official sheets. Meanwhile, a woman in the room I was in decided that we should split those who had already filled in the sheets into rooms based on their vote. Our room became the Barack Obama room.
As more and more people came into our room after filling out sheets, I found I was explaining what exactly it was we were doing to more and more people. I explained that they would count all of the votes on the sheets for Barack Obama and the votes for Hillary Clinton, and based on those percentages, the delegates would be split up for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Then we would decide who among us would serve as those delegates in the county convention on March 29th.
Apparently people felt like I knew what I was talking about. When it came time for the precinct chair to be voted upon, I actually recieved a nomination causing us to vote between me and the woman who came in as the precinct chair. She won, which I wasn't really upset about, because even though I knew what was going on and what needed to be done, I didn't come in planning to run the caucus.
The next step was for the Precinct Chair to make sure that everyone who caucused had voted and were therefore able to caucus. As we waited for that news. Those of us in the Obama room talked amongst ourselves. I talked a little about why I was a Barack Obama supporter, plus thanks to my internet enabled phone was able to fill people in on what was happening nationally.
There were more people in the Obama room then in the Clinton room, but fully a third of the people who had signed the sheets had left at this point, as they had no desire to serve as delegates, but wanted to vote in the caucus.
Finally, everyone was deemed eligable for the caucus and the Precinct Chair and the Secretary (who we also voted on and who thankfully no one nominated me for) counted up the votes and did the math to split up the 14 delegates available to our precinct.
Although I didn't know it then, the caucus vote in our precinct very closely matched the primary vote in our county. 61% of the vote went for Clinton, 39% went for Obama, meaning 9 of the delegates would be Clinton delegates and 5 would be Obama delegates.
At this point I began to worry about whether I would be able to be a delegate to the county convention, which I really wanted to be. As I said, the majority of people still there were in the Barack Obama room, whereas in the Clinton room, there was just enough people to have the requisite number of delegates and alternates required.
Luckily, I had done a good job of making my presence known and my desire to be a delegate, and I was chosen as one of the five delegates for Barack Obama.
After it was decided, I got a chance to shake hands with most of the Obama supporters, as well as say "See you soon" to the other delegates. I went to speak to the Precinct Chair, who didn't seem at all upset that I was nominated to replace her earlier in the evening. Instead she invited me to the Democratic offices of the county telling me that young democrats such as myself were few and far between in the area and should get involved. I told her that I would be more then happy to do just that. We talked about how pleased we both were to see the turnout that the precinct recieved considering what a conservative strong hold out county was, and hoped that such enthusiasm could continue past the primary and even past the Presidential election in November.
Needless to say, I am very excited about the opportunity to serve as a precinct delegate for Senator Obama, and even more excited about the fact that I was wrong to believe that I was alone as a Democrat in my county and in fact there are far more of us then I could have hoped.
Nearly 100 people caucused at my precinct alone, a small precinct in a small county, a county that is largly conservative, and still almost 100 people came out on a cold night after having previously voted either earlier in the day or in the last couple of weeks, almost 100 people waited in the cold for 45 minutes, then waited to sign their names to paper that was quickly running out. Then half of those people waited to decide on who would represent their precinct in the county convention. The dedication of those people gave me hope. Even though the percentage of delegates didn't go the way I wanted it to, it gave me hope that the people of the Country are ready to make their voice heard, that maybe the government will once again be of the people and for the people.
Change starts from the bottom up.
Yes We Can.
Hillary Clinton won the county 63% to 35%. A total of 4761 people in my county voted in the Democratic Primary. In the Republican Primary, a total of 7146 people voted.
100% of precincts in both have reported.
The numbers should give you some idea of what type of county I live in. It is small (comparitively) and strongly conservative. I have no doubt that there were a lot of Republicans crossing party lines to vote in the Democratic primary, and I have no doubt that a majority of them were voting for Hillary Clinton. But I also believe that there are far more Democrats in my county then people first assumed.
When I headed to my precinct in order to caucus (part two of the Texas Two Step) there were no parking places whatsoever. It was just before 7:00 when the polls were scheduled to close. Surely, I thought, this isn't just people waiting to vote?
As I parked, far away from where I was supposed to be, I saw in the distance lots of people hanging around outside. I walked up to them, trying to figure out exactly where I was supposed to be and who all these people were. As I listened to some of the conversation (and entered it occasionally) I realized that a lot of these people were Democrats.
There was still a long line inside the building containing our precinct of people trying to vote. We were told that we were not allowed inside until the voting finished. No one complained about this, I think we all understood it. The problem was that I don't think any of us were anticipating the fact that we would have to wait outside for quite some time and hadn't planned accordingly. It was a little cold. As we stood shivering looking 100 feet away at the building where people were voting we tried to tell from what we could see through the windows how many more people still had to vote.
Apparently, the precinct judge was worried about the large number of people standing outside. She called for some police help describing our shivering masses as a "angry mob".
The cop showed up and walked past us to the precinct where the door was unlocked and he was let in. We continued to shiver and talk amongst ourselves. A few minutes later he walked back outside. This was at 7:30. He came up very close to where I was standing and addressed us. He said that the precinct judge wanted us to make sure we were beyond the sign a full 100 feet from the doors. There was one person just on the precinct side of the sign. She quickly took the one step necessary to comply with the rules.
The cop said he hoped we would stay orderly as there were a lot more of us then there was of him. He said it should be fine as long as we didn't have pitchforks. I then responded that it might be helpful if we had some torches, just for warming purposes. I got a large laugh from that.
Finally, the last people finished voting. We still had to wait as they packed away the voting apparatus. Finally, the precinct judge called for the Democratic Precint Chair. She walked up the sidewalk and into the building. About a minute later, the precinct judge came back out and called for the Republican Precinct Chair. About a minute after that, the man who was the Republican Precinct Chair came back out and asked who all was there for the Republican Precinct Convention. Three of the nearly 100 people standing outside stepped forward. Everyone else there was there for the Democratic caucus. I was shocked. I didn't think there were that many Democrats in my county.
Finally, the rest of us were let inside at about 7:45. We were told that we had two small rooms, probably about 12 feet by 10 feet each, to hold nearly 100 people. Then we were told that there were only 5 sheets for us to sign with 12 spots on each one. That meant that there were only 60 slots for us and 30 some more people wanting to caucus. The precinct chair had to call the "hotline" in order to find out what to do about it. A majority of the people went into the room on the left (fitting I suppose since we're Democrats) but I and a few others went into the room on the right. Three of the sheets went into the room on the left, the other two went into the room I was in. I signed third on one of them, stating my preference for Barack Obama. Many people weren't exactly sure what it was we were doing, so I tried my best to answer the questions that people had. They seemed to understand as I did my best to explain the caucus process. Finally, the precinct chair recieved word that she could use notebook paper for those who couldn't fill out the official sheets. Meanwhile, a woman in the room I was in decided that we should split those who had already filled in the sheets into rooms based on their vote. Our room became the Barack Obama room.
As more and more people came into our room after filling out sheets, I found I was explaining what exactly it was we were doing to more and more people. I explained that they would count all of the votes on the sheets for Barack Obama and the votes for Hillary Clinton, and based on those percentages, the delegates would be split up for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Then we would decide who among us would serve as those delegates in the county convention on March 29th.
Apparently people felt like I knew what I was talking about. When it came time for the precinct chair to be voted upon, I actually recieved a nomination causing us to vote between me and the woman who came in as the precinct chair. She won, which I wasn't really upset about, because even though I knew what was going on and what needed to be done, I didn't come in planning to run the caucus.
The next step was for the Precinct Chair to make sure that everyone who caucused had voted and were therefore able to caucus. As we waited for that news. Those of us in the Obama room talked amongst ourselves. I talked a little about why I was a Barack Obama supporter, plus thanks to my internet enabled phone was able to fill people in on what was happening nationally.
There were more people in the Obama room then in the Clinton room, but fully a third of the people who had signed the sheets had left at this point, as they had no desire to serve as delegates, but wanted to vote in the caucus.
Finally, everyone was deemed eligable for the caucus and the Precinct Chair and the Secretary (who we also voted on and who thankfully no one nominated me for) counted up the votes and did the math to split up the 14 delegates available to our precinct.
Although I didn't know it then, the caucus vote in our precinct very closely matched the primary vote in our county. 61% of the vote went for Clinton, 39% went for Obama, meaning 9 of the delegates would be Clinton delegates and 5 would be Obama delegates.
At this point I began to worry about whether I would be able to be a delegate to the county convention, which I really wanted to be. As I said, the majority of people still there were in the Barack Obama room, whereas in the Clinton room, there was just enough people to have the requisite number of delegates and alternates required.
Luckily, I had done a good job of making my presence known and my desire to be a delegate, and I was chosen as one of the five delegates for Barack Obama.
After it was decided, I got a chance to shake hands with most of the Obama supporters, as well as say "See you soon" to the other delegates. I went to speak to the Precinct Chair, who didn't seem at all upset that I was nominated to replace her earlier in the evening. Instead she invited me to the Democratic offices of the county telling me that young democrats such as myself were few and far between in the area and should get involved. I told her that I would be more then happy to do just that. We talked about how pleased we both were to see the turnout that the precinct recieved considering what a conservative strong hold out county was, and hoped that such enthusiasm could continue past the primary and even past the Presidential election in November.
Needless to say, I am very excited about the opportunity to serve as a precinct delegate for Senator Obama, and even more excited about the fact that I was wrong to believe that I was alone as a Democrat in my county and in fact there are far more of us then I could have hoped.
Nearly 100 people caucused at my precinct alone, a small precinct in a small county, a county that is largly conservative, and still almost 100 people came out on a cold night after having previously voted either earlier in the day or in the last couple of weeks, almost 100 people waited in the cold for 45 minutes, then waited to sign their names to paper that was quickly running out. Then half of those people waited to decide on who would represent their precinct in the county convention. The dedication of those people gave me hope. Even though the percentage of delegates didn't go the way I wanted it to, it gave me hope that the people of the Country are ready to make their voice heard, that maybe the government will once again be of the people and for the people.
Change starts from the bottom up.
Yes We Can.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
I Voted, Have You?
Let's start with the Quote of the Day, since it's been a few days since we've checked in with it...
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
-Douglas Adams
I love Douglas Adams, the man who gave us the answer to Life, The Universe, and Everything. (If you don't know the answer, I will kindly provide it to you, 42. Now if only we knew the question.)
On to other things, today, I participated in my civic duty and voted in the primary, taking advantage of Early Voting, which ends tomorrow. Make sure to go and vote today or tomorrow if you live in Texas. If you don't vote today or tomorrow, make sure to go on Tuesday and make your voice heard.
Remember, after the primary ends on Tuesday, the caucus begins. Go to your local precinct on Tuesday evening after 7:00pm for that. You are only eligable to participate in the caucus if you voted in the primary, however.
Tonight, I hope to get in to see Barack Obama in Downtown Fort Worth, Texas. If I get any good pictures, I will share them with you here. I tried to talk my sister into going and taking my niece wearing a "Change Me, Obama!" bib, but alas, she said that 8:00pm was way to late for the 8 month old to be out. My sister has no sense of history (and even less sense of direction, but that's another story completely). What can you do?
One more thing before I go, an old man at the early voting place made me laugh this morning. He raged about the "mean" volunteers not allowing him to vote in the Democratic primary for President and the Republican for everything else. They informed him (calmly, I thought, considering) that he could only vote in one or the other for the primaries, but not both. They noted that in the general election in November he could vote Democratic for President and Republican for everything else.
This was his response.
"I ain't voting for no Democrat in November!"
Ah, small town Texas, how fun you can be.
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
-Douglas Adams
I love Douglas Adams, the man who gave us the answer to Life, The Universe, and Everything. (If you don't know the answer, I will kindly provide it to you, 42. Now if only we knew the question.)
On to other things, today, I participated in my civic duty and voted in the primary, taking advantage of Early Voting, which ends tomorrow. Make sure to go and vote today or tomorrow if you live in Texas. If you don't vote today or tomorrow, make sure to go on Tuesday and make your voice heard.
Remember, after the primary ends on Tuesday, the caucus begins. Go to your local precinct on Tuesday evening after 7:00pm for that. You are only eligable to participate in the caucus if you voted in the primary, however.
Tonight, I hope to get in to see Barack Obama in Downtown Fort Worth, Texas. If I get any good pictures, I will share them with you here. I tried to talk my sister into going and taking my niece wearing a "Change Me, Obama!" bib, but alas, she said that 8:00pm was way to late for the 8 month old to be out. My sister has no sense of history (and even less sense of direction, but that's another story completely). What can you do?
One more thing before I go, an old man at the early voting place made me laugh this morning. He raged about the "mean" volunteers not allowing him to vote in the Democratic primary for President and the Republican for everything else. They informed him (calmly, I thought, considering) that he could only vote in one or the other for the primaries, but not both. They noted that in the general election in November he could vote Democratic for President and Republican for everything else.
This was his response.
"I ain't voting for no Democrat in November!"
Ah, small town Texas, how fun you can be.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Thoughts on Last Night's Debate
For Senator Clinton, last night's debate was critical. Now shown running in a statistical dead heat with Senator Obama in the critical states of Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton needed to really trip Barack Obama up, but I don't feel like she accomplished that.
For Barack Obama, all he really had to do was stay on his feet, and I think that he did.
If you asked me who I felt "won the debate", I'd probably say that Senator Clinton did slightly better overall then Senator Obama. I didn't, however, feel like Senator Clinton started out too strongly. She complained about always getting the first question and came off as whiny. She reference a Saturday Night Live skit implying that Barack Obama was getting preferential treatment from the media and it didn't come off very well either. As the debate went on, however, and Tim Russert grilled Senator Clinton on point after point, and she answered smartly and strongly, she definitely ended the night stronger then she began it.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, just needed to maintain the status quo, and he did just that. He didn't blow anyone away last night, but he didn't do anything to disappoint anyone either. The numbers now show him with a rather sizable national lead over Senator Clinton among Democrats and in a National Poll, he is shown to be leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain by a fairly sizable margin. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is shown in a statistical tie with the Republican front runner.
If Barack Obama happens to win next week in either Texas or Ohio (and I certainly believe that it is possible) it will probably be time for Hillary Clinton to see the writing on the wall and get the Democratic party united behind the man who currently seems the best bet to defeat McCain and win back the White House. Will she do that, however? I have no idea. After all, both Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are still running for the Republican nomination despite the fact that McCain losing it now would be nigh on impossible. While Barack Obama's lead is large and would be almost impossible to overcome, on the Democratic side there is still the issue of Super Delegates and Hillary Clinton could conceivably be handed the nomination by them despite the lead that Barack Obama has in pledged delegates. Such a move could fracture the Democratic party however, and I don't foresee Senator Clinton doing that, but I acknowledge that it is a possibility.
If you haven't already, take a look at yesterday's post on how exactly the Texas Primary/Caucus works as well as a list of the 32 Texas Super Delegates. And if you happen to live in Texas, get out and vote early. Early voting is going on until Friday February 29th and then the polls re-open on Tuesday March 4th. Then remember to come back to your polling place that evening for the caucus.
Finally, you should check out these two you tube videos on a young man's feelings on why he voted for Barack Obama.
For Barack Obama, all he really had to do was stay on his feet, and I think that he did.
If you asked me who I felt "won the debate", I'd probably say that Senator Clinton did slightly better overall then Senator Obama. I didn't, however, feel like Senator Clinton started out too strongly. She complained about always getting the first question and came off as whiny. She reference a Saturday Night Live skit implying that Barack Obama was getting preferential treatment from the media and it didn't come off very well either. As the debate went on, however, and Tim Russert grilled Senator Clinton on point after point, and she answered smartly and strongly, she definitely ended the night stronger then she began it.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, just needed to maintain the status quo, and he did just that. He didn't blow anyone away last night, but he didn't do anything to disappoint anyone either. The numbers now show him with a rather sizable national lead over Senator Clinton among Democrats and in a National Poll, he is shown to be leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain by a fairly sizable margin. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is shown in a statistical tie with the Republican front runner.
If Barack Obama happens to win next week in either Texas or Ohio (and I certainly believe that it is possible) it will probably be time for Hillary Clinton to see the writing on the wall and get the Democratic party united behind the man who currently seems the best bet to defeat McCain and win back the White House. Will she do that, however? I have no idea. After all, both Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are still running for the Republican nomination despite the fact that McCain losing it now would be nigh on impossible. While Barack Obama's lead is large and would be almost impossible to overcome, on the Democratic side there is still the issue of Super Delegates and Hillary Clinton could conceivably be handed the nomination by them despite the lead that Barack Obama has in pledged delegates. Such a move could fracture the Democratic party however, and I don't foresee Senator Clinton doing that, but I acknowledge that it is a possibility.
If you haven't already, take a look at yesterday's post on how exactly the Texas Primary/Caucus works as well as a list of the 32 Texas Super Delegates. And if you happen to live in Texas, get out and vote early. Early voting is going on until Friday February 29th and then the polls re-open on Tuesday March 4th. Then remember to come back to your polling place that evening for the caucus.
Finally, you should check out these two you tube videos on a young man's feelings on why he voted for Barack Obama.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
One Week From Today
So we are a week away from the biggest contest in the Democratic race for the nomination. A win for Barack Obama in either Texas (represent) or Ohio will likely go a long way towards ending the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.
So, if you are a Texas Democrat, how can you help put your candidate of choice over the top or keep your candidate of choice alive? Well, first, you will vote in the primary which can be done one of two ways, either through early voting (now through Friday Feb. 29th early voting is available throughout Texas) or at your polling place on Tuesday March 4th. This will account for 129 of the 228 of the available delegates Texas has to offer. They will be split up on a proportional basis, depending on the amount of the vote that each candidate receives with districts that voted more democratic in the 2004 Presidential Election and the 2006 Gubernatorial Election receiving a larger number of delegates to award.
Second, you will go back to your polling place at 7:00pm on March 4th to take place in a caucus when statewide, 67 more delegates will be allocated. Everyone will have the opportunity at the caucus to convince the others to support their candidate and get those delegates available for your district to be applied to your candidate.
The remaining 32 of the 228 delegates Texas has to offer are Super Delegates.
Here is a list of those Super Delegates from Texas
So, if you are a Texas Democrat, how can you help put your candidate of choice over the top or keep your candidate of choice alive? Well, first, you will vote in the primary which can be done one of two ways, either through early voting (now through Friday Feb. 29th early voting is available throughout Texas) or at your polling place on Tuesday March 4th. This will account for 129 of the 228 of the available delegates Texas has to offer. They will be split up on a proportional basis, depending on the amount of the vote that each candidate receives with districts that voted more democratic in the 2004 Presidential Election and the 2006 Gubernatorial Election receiving a larger number of delegates to award.
Second, you will go back to your polling place at 7:00pm on March 4th to take place in a caucus when statewide, 67 more delegates will be allocated. Everyone will have the opportunity at the caucus to convince the others to support their candidate and get those delegates available for your district to be applied to your candidate.
The remaining 32 of the 228 delegates Texas has to offer are Super Delegates.
Here is a list of those Super Delegates from Texas
The list, after the jump, courtesy of Time (go here for full list of all 795):
Democratic National Committee Members:
Roy LaVerne Brooks TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Linda Chavez-Thompson OFFICERS
Yvonne Davis TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Al Edwards TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Norma Fisher Flores TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Jaime A. Gonzalez, Jr. TEXAS DNC MEMBER
David Hardt YOUNG DEMOCRATS OF AMERICA
David Holmes TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Denise Johnson MEMBERS-AT-LARGE
Eddie Bernice Johnson MEMBERS-AT-LARGE
Sue Lovell TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Robert Martinez MEMBERS-AT-LARGE
Moses Mercado MEMBERS-AT-LARGE
John Patrick TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Betty Richie TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Boyd Richie TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Robert Slagle TEXAS DNC MEMBER
Senfronia Thompson TEXAS DNC MEMBERU.S. House of Representatives:
Henry Cuellar
Lloyd Doggett
Chet Edwards
Charles Gonzalez
Al Green
Gene Green
Rubin Hinojosa
Sheila Jackson-Lee
Nick Lampson
Solomon Ortiz
Silvestre Reyes
Ciro D. Rodriguex
Distinguished Party Leader Leadership Position:
Robert Strauss FORMER DNC CHAIRMAN
Jim Wright FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Not Too Much To Say, But A Few Things
I'm not really going to talk about the quote of the day today, because it's a little dark, but I'm putting it up anyway. Do with it what you will.
"A friend is someone who will help you move. A real friend is someone who will help you move a body."
-unknown
Yeah, I wouldn't take credit for it either.
On to some happier news, yesterday I talked about Barack Obama speaking in the city of Houston, well, my cousin and his family went. To see some great pictures of them Ba-Rocking the Vote there you can visit Erica's blog fifth of forever. The picture of Oliver, their beautiful baby, actually made the local FOX news. Check it out here, Oliver's about halfway through.
I'm excited that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be debating in the great city of Austin tomorrow and even more excited that Texas is more then just an afterthought in the Presidential Election.
I'd write more today, but I'm about blogged out due to my novel length post on the Top Ten Films of 2007, feel free to check that out if you're interested.
"A friend is someone who will help you move. A real friend is someone who will help you move a body."
-unknown
Yeah, I wouldn't take credit for it either.
On to some happier news, yesterday I talked about Barack Obama speaking in the city of Houston, well, my cousin and his family went. To see some great pictures of them Ba-Rocking the Vote there you can visit Erica's blog fifth of forever. The picture of Oliver, their beautiful baby, actually made the local FOX news. Check it out here, Oliver's about halfway through.
I'm excited that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be debating in the great city of Austin tomorrow and even more excited that Texas is more then just an afterthought in the Presidential Election.
I'd write more today, but I'm about blogged out due to my novel length post on the Top Ten Films of 2007, feel free to check that out if you're interested.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Primaries Plus Democrats in TEXAS?!?!?
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
-Patrick Young
Today's quote of the day is rather appropriate, I think. But the forecasting that I'm thinking of today is political not weather.
If you think back to June of 2007, back before everyone knew that Clemens was a steroid user, political forecasters foresaw a couple of things for sure, John McCain was done, the Republican Primary would probably go to Rudy Gulianni, but if Fred Thompson entered the race, he could become a viable candidate, and on the Democratic side, Barack Obama was interesting, for sure, but the race would be over very quickly with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.
Well, as we travel from the past back to the present, we can see that Gulianni and Thompson are both out of the race, and with the backing of Mitt Romney and former President Bush, McCain should have the nomination sown up by early next month at the latest. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, while prognosticators where correct in regards to the interest the nation has taken in Senator Obama, they handed Senator Clinton victory a little too quickly.
Sticking with the idea given us by Mr. Young in the quote of the day, we've seen many projections and polls in politics that have proved to be false. As recently as the New Hampshire Primary, polls showed Hillary Clinton trailing, and yet, she won the Primary.
As it stands right now, Senators Clinton and Obama are polling neck and neck in Wisconsin (the State of Cheese). A victory here would be huge for Clinton as just last week she was given no chance. She appeared to be following a "keep your eyes on the big states" type of strategy looking ahead towards Texas and Ohio next Tuesday and Pennsylvania on April 22nd, conceding everything in between to Obama. Her strategy shifted, however, perhaps due to the critiques her plan was recieving throughout the media, and she began to spend some time and money in Wisconsin.
At the very least, she's made things interesting again. I'm beginning to believe more and more that the Democratic nomination will not be decided until the Democratic convention in August.
Texas remains important, though. If Senator Clinton pulls out a victory in Wisconsin tonight, then getting less delegates from Texas then Senator Obama doesn't become as big of an issue as it would if she gets swept out of February after Super Tuesday.
The interesting thing about Texas is the fact that Clinton could win the overall vote in Texas, but be awarded less Texas Delegates then Obama. The reason for this is that the Democratic delegates are weighted by the amounts of Democratic voters in the county in the last election for Governer. A county in which 75% of the vote went Democratic will award more delegates then a place where only 25% of the vote went Democratic. So, if you're a Democrat in Texas, your lonely vote for Chris Bell might actually have meant something after all. What makes this important is that in that election, the areas with a strong Latino presence, Hillary Clinton's strong constituancy, are in primarily Republican counties.
You may recall the redistricting scandal a few years back when the Republican controlled State Congress redrew the voting lines primarily to break up the strong Latino voting districts (which voted primarilly Democratic) and placed them as smaller pieces into largely Republican districts, removing some seats from Democrats. This is the main reason why the areas with Latino voters will have a smaller number of delegates to give then other areas, areas with younger, more affluent, and better educated voters, and areas with a large number of African Americans, all of whom tend to vote in larger numbers for Barack Obama. Add to that the fact that polls now have Obama nearly spliting the woman's vote and the elderly vote with Clinton, the gender and age group that she used to dominate, and Clinton's one remaining strength (the Latino vote) is less of a strength then one might have originally thought it would be in Texas. So while Senator Clinton is counting on the large number of Latino voters in Texas to propell her to victory here, the delegates will be larger in the areas where Senator Obama has the edge, meaning Clinton might win the state, but Obama's delegate lead will still grow.
But, like I said at the beginning, polls and predictions can often be wrong, at least often enough for us to be stupid to put our faith in them completely, but they also are right often enough for them to be worth paying attention to.
Either way, the fact that today in the city of Houston, Barack Obama will be giving his post primary speech in the Toyata Center excites me. Last week, Hillary Clinton was in El Paso. Thursday they will be debating in Austin. How crazy is this, Democrats who are running for President are campaining in Texas? W.'s state?
Enjoy it while it lasts Texas Democrats, because things like this don't happen too often around here.
-Patrick Young
Today's quote of the day is rather appropriate, I think. But the forecasting that I'm thinking of today is political not weather.
If you think back to June of 2007, back before everyone knew that Clemens was a steroid user, political forecasters foresaw a couple of things for sure, John McCain was done, the Republican Primary would probably go to Rudy Gulianni, but if Fred Thompson entered the race, he could become a viable candidate, and on the Democratic side, Barack Obama was interesting, for sure, but the race would be over very quickly with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.
Well, as we travel from the past back to the present, we can see that Gulianni and Thompson are both out of the race, and with the backing of Mitt Romney and former President Bush, McCain should have the nomination sown up by early next month at the latest. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, while prognosticators where correct in regards to the interest the nation has taken in Senator Obama, they handed Senator Clinton victory a little too quickly.
Sticking with the idea given us by Mr. Young in the quote of the day, we've seen many projections and polls in politics that have proved to be false. As recently as the New Hampshire Primary, polls showed Hillary Clinton trailing, and yet, she won the Primary.
As it stands right now, Senators Clinton and Obama are polling neck and neck in Wisconsin (the State of Cheese). A victory here would be huge for Clinton as just last week she was given no chance. She appeared to be following a "keep your eyes on the big states" type of strategy looking ahead towards Texas and Ohio next Tuesday and Pennsylvania on April 22nd, conceding everything in between to Obama. Her strategy shifted, however, perhaps due to the critiques her plan was recieving throughout the media, and she began to spend some time and money in Wisconsin.
At the very least, she's made things interesting again. I'm beginning to believe more and more that the Democratic nomination will not be decided until the Democratic convention in August.
Texas remains important, though. If Senator Clinton pulls out a victory in Wisconsin tonight, then getting less delegates from Texas then Senator Obama doesn't become as big of an issue as it would if she gets swept out of February after Super Tuesday.
The interesting thing about Texas is the fact that Clinton could win the overall vote in Texas, but be awarded less Texas Delegates then Obama. The reason for this is that the Democratic delegates are weighted by the amounts of Democratic voters in the county in the last election for Governer. A county in which 75% of the vote went Democratic will award more delegates then a place where only 25% of the vote went Democratic. So, if you're a Democrat in Texas, your lonely vote for Chris Bell might actually have meant something after all. What makes this important is that in that election, the areas with a strong Latino presence, Hillary Clinton's strong constituancy, are in primarily Republican counties.
You may recall the redistricting scandal a few years back when the Republican controlled State Congress redrew the voting lines primarily to break up the strong Latino voting districts (which voted primarilly Democratic) and placed them as smaller pieces into largely Republican districts, removing some seats from Democrats. This is the main reason why the areas with Latino voters will have a smaller number of delegates to give then other areas, areas with younger, more affluent, and better educated voters, and areas with a large number of African Americans, all of whom tend to vote in larger numbers for Barack Obama. Add to that the fact that polls now have Obama nearly spliting the woman's vote and the elderly vote with Clinton, the gender and age group that she used to dominate, and Clinton's one remaining strength (the Latino vote) is less of a strength then one might have originally thought it would be in Texas. So while Senator Clinton is counting on the large number of Latino voters in Texas to propell her to victory here, the delegates will be larger in the areas where Senator Obama has the edge, meaning Clinton might win the state, but Obama's delegate lead will still grow.
But, like I said at the beginning, polls and predictions can often be wrong, at least often enough for us to be stupid to put our faith in them completely, but they also are right often enough for them to be worth paying attention to.
Either way, the fact that today in the city of Houston, Barack Obama will be giving his post primary speech in the Toyata Center excites me. Last week, Hillary Clinton was in El Paso. Thursday they will be debating in Austin. How crazy is this, Democrats who are running for President are campaining in Texas? W.'s state?
Enjoy it while it lasts Texas Democrats, because things like this don't happen too often around here.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Thoughts on Politics
This is always a fascinating time for me, when the world pays attention to our (as in these United States of America) process of electing our officials, and specifically, the race to elect the next "Most Powerful Man in the World". The reason that this election in particular is so fascinating is that there is the possibility that the next "Most Powerful Man in the World" won't actually be a man.
Yes, we are witnessing history in the making, as the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States will for the first time ever on either side of the political aisle, either be a woman (Hillary Clinton) or a black man (Barack Obama).
Would anyone have believed this possible just a few short years ago?
Meanwhile, John McCain appears to be the presumptive Republican nominee, but many Republicans who consider themselves especially "Conservative" aren't very fond of him, propelling Mike Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist minister, into a few big primary wins and a few other surprisingly close races.
Therefore, the Republican race is staying interesting as well. Sure it doesn't have history backing it the way that the Democratic race does, but it certainly has its fair share of drama.
McCain is going to win the nomination on the Republican side, it would take a miracle for him not to. (Although I did enjoy the Huckabee quote, "I didn't major in math in college, I majored in miracles.") The question becomes, when he does win the nomination does he add on a very conservative running mate to appease the Republican base, change his stance on the issues that bother the conservatives the most, or decide that he doesn't need the conservatives at all (which would either fracture the Republican party or cause them to run a super conservative third party canidate)? These questions make the Republican situation fun to watch.
Besides history on the Democratic side, there is the question of Super Delegates. In order to win the Democratic nomination, you need a total of 2,025 delagates, won primarily by the votes cast in Caucases and Primaries. However, there are also 796 Super Delegates (generally Democratic members of Congress, Governers, National Comittee Members, and Party Leaders) who are free to back whomever they choose. Due to how close the race is (at this posting, Obama leads Clinton 1,096 to 977 not counting the Super Delegates) it is unlikely that either canidate will win the requisite number of delagates through the primary process, meaning that ultimately it will be the Super Delagates that decide this election. If Obama continues to hold on to his lead based on the voting public, but the Super Delagates propell Clinton to victory, the Democrats could be faced with a party fracturing possibility as well.
I'll especially be watching the results March 4th in Ohio and Texas (where I am a registered voter and will be exercising my political right). If Hillary Clinton doesn't win both of those states, it will be very hard for her to continue her campaign. If she does win them both, we very likely could be looking at a situation where the Super Delagates decide the election.
Whether you normally follow politics or not, whether you think that they are all a bunch of overpayed publicity hounds or whether you think that they actually care about the people they represent, you can't deny that this is some high drama, much better then the reality shows that are so prevalent across the television landscape. At least it is in my opinion.
Yes, we are witnessing history in the making, as the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States will for the first time ever on either side of the political aisle, either be a woman (Hillary Clinton) or a black man (Barack Obama).
Would anyone have believed this possible just a few short years ago?
Meanwhile, John McCain appears to be the presumptive Republican nominee, but many Republicans who consider themselves especially "Conservative" aren't very fond of him, propelling Mike Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist minister, into a few big primary wins and a few other surprisingly close races.
Therefore, the Republican race is staying interesting as well. Sure it doesn't have history backing it the way that the Democratic race does, but it certainly has its fair share of drama.
McCain is going to win the nomination on the Republican side, it would take a miracle for him not to. (Although I did enjoy the Huckabee quote, "I didn't major in math in college, I majored in miracles.") The question becomes, when he does win the nomination does he add on a very conservative running mate to appease the Republican base, change his stance on the issues that bother the conservatives the most, or decide that he doesn't need the conservatives at all (which would either fracture the Republican party or cause them to run a super conservative third party canidate)? These questions make the Republican situation fun to watch.
Besides history on the Democratic side, there is the question of Super Delegates. In order to win the Democratic nomination, you need a total of 2,025 delagates, won primarily by the votes cast in Caucases and Primaries. However, there are also 796 Super Delegates (generally Democratic members of Congress, Governers, National Comittee Members, and Party Leaders) who are free to back whomever they choose. Due to how close the race is (at this posting, Obama leads Clinton 1,096 to 977 not counting the Super Delegates) it is unlikely that either canidate will win the requisite number of delagates through the primary process, meaning that ultimately it will be the Super Delagates that decide this election. If Obama continues to hold on to his lead based on the voting public, but the Super Delagates propell Clinton to victory, the Democrats could be faced with a party fracturing possibility as well.
I'll especially be watching the results March 4th in Ohio and Texas (where I am a registered voter and will be exercising my political right). If Hillary Clinton doesn't win both of those states, it will be very hard for her to continue her campaign. If she does win them both, we very likely could be looking at a situation where the Super Delagates decide the election.
Whether you normally follow politics or not, whether you think that they are all a bunch of overpayed publicity hounds or whether you think that they actually care about the people they represent, you can't deny that this is some high drama, much better then the reality shows that are so prevalent across the television landscape. At least it is in my opinion.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
