Who would have seen that coming at the beginning of this process?
The way things stand right now, Obama will win North Carolina (hopefully it will be by a big margin) and Clinton will win Indiana (but it's probably going to be very close).
For Clinton to realistically be able to claim victory, she would have to catch Obama in pledged delegates. To do that, Clinton would have to win the remaining states by 70%, which is extremely unlikely. There is no way that Clinton can match Obama in number of states won, although it is possible that she catches him in popular vote.
Despite the fact that it is nearly impossible to pass Obama at this stage for front runner status and that she is consistently polling as less likely to beat McCain, there is no indication that Clinton plans on stopping short of the convention.
Even if Obama sweeps tonight (which is far more possible then Clinton sweeping) I doubt that Clinton will concede.
For a time, I felt like this protracted race was good for the Democratic party, raising interest in the process, but now the future of the Country is at stake and Clinton is doing more harm then good in my opinion.
This race has been pretty much decided for some time, but she refuses to give up, and while admire that to some extent, this is far too important a time for the Country to be damaging any Democratic chance at the White House just because you don't want to lose.
My only hope is that when the Super Delegates decide the contest in Obama's favor (which is certainly the trend, as for the last couple of months, Obama has gained hundreds of Super Delegates while Clinton has lost some), Clinton will step aside without any more fighting. Then perhaps this prolonged fight will at least have one positive outcome by virtue of helping to prepare Obama for the race with McCain.
Showing posts with label Super Delegates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Delegates. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Friday, March 7, 2008
Florida and Michigan and Super Delegates, Oh My
With the wins posted by Senator Clinton Tuesday night, an opportunity was wasted by Senator Obama to end things now and begin to focus the entire might of the Democratic Primary behind winning in November, now we still have some things to sort out first.
Let me start off by congratulating Senator Clinton on her wins in Rhode Island, Ohio, and the Texas Primary, as Senator Obama did himself in his speech that very night (something she rarely does, one of the many reasons I have lost the feelings I once had for her not very long ago). At worst, she stopped Senator Obama's momentum, at best, perhaps she gained some for herself.
But before we get too carried away with anything, Barack Obama came into last Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100 and he came out of Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100. In fact, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram believes that despite losing the popular vote in Texas (by less then 100,000 in a state where almost 3 million voted) he might come out of Texas with more delegates then his primary advisary.
So, sure, Hillary Clinton had a big night, a very important night for her if she wanted to keep her canidacy alive. But that's all she did, in my opinion, was keep her canidacy alive. She didn't become the front runner after that night. She didn't even really gain any ground on the front runner. She just kept from losing any.
What it really means is that it is going to be much harder for either of them to secure the nomination any time soon. This is shaping up to be a race to the very finish folks.
What becomes interesting are the varying factors that can help to decide it. I've spoken in this blog before about the Super Delegates, but we haven't really talked about the Strange Case of Florida and Michigan yet, so what do you say we do that now? Good.
Both Florida and Michigan signed the agreement with the National Democratic Party that they would abide by rules that stated primaries had to be held on or after Feb. 5th (aka Super Tuesday) with the exceptions being Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. However, both moved up their primaries in order to be important in the upcoming election. In punishment, both were stripped of Delegates in the nomination process causing them both to become pointless. The irony of course is that had they stayed in their normal places, both states would have been not only important, but, much like last Tuesday had the potential to be, critical. Instead they risked being a complete non-factor.
Hillary Clinton claims that since she won both of those primaries, the delegates should be counted and given to her. This is simply unfair, however, as she was the only major candidate on Michigan's ballot, and Barack Obama was given no opportunity to campaign in Florida (where Clinton is already well known, but at the time of the Florida primary, Obama was still relatively new to the nation). And with his ability to speak and the wonders he has already accomplished while campaigning, denying him that opportunity in Florida is completely unfair.
But, what it comes down to is that the delegates in Florida and Michigan might be very important in securing the nomination for one candidate or the other, and, after all, it isn't the fault of the voters that their party leaders tried to up the date against the rules. They shouldn't be penalized.
So, the answer on first glance seems obvious. Let's hold new primaries in each of the two states, with both Clinton and Obama given a chance to make their case to the voters. Oh, if only it were that simple. You see, primaries cost tax payers money. Money that tax payers have already spent on primaries in this very election season. Redoing them (while it seems logical) would require repaying for them, and let's face it, the economy ain't that great right now folks. (Thanks a lot, W. And McCain is promising more of the same, I'm just saying.) According to an article on cnn.com, Michigan's redo could cost approximently $10 million and Florida's could cost upwards of $25 million.
Everyone agrees that delegates in these states might have to count. It's the how that is the question and will bear watching as this race continues.
Let me start off by congratulating Senator Clinton on her wins in Rhode Island, Ohio, and the Texas Primary, as Senator Obama did himself in his speech that very night (something she rarely does, one of the many reasons I have lost the feelings I once had for her not very long ago). At worst, she stopped Senator Obama's momentum, at best, perhaps she gained some for herself.
But before we get too carried away with anything, Barack Obama came into last Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100 and he came out of Tuesday's races with a delegate lead of well over 100. In fact, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram believes that despite losing the popular vote in Texas (by less then 100,000 in a state where almost 3 million voted) he might come out of Texas with more delegates then his primary advisary.
So, sure, Hillary Clinton had a big night, a very important night for her if she wanted to keep her canidacy alive. But that's all she did, in my opinion, was keep her canidacy alive. She didn't become the front runner after that night. She didn't even really gain any ground on the front runner. She just kept from losing any.
What it really means is that it is going to be much harder for either of them to secure the nomination any time soon. This is shaping up to be a race to the very finish folks.
What becomes interesting are the varying factors that can help to decide it. I've spoken in this blog before about the Super Delegates, but we haven't really talked about the Strange Case of Florida and Michigan yet, so what do you say we do that now? Good.
Both Florida and Michigan signed the agreement with the National Democratic Party that they would abide by rules that stated primaries had to be held on or after Feb. 5th (aka Super Tuesday) with the exceptions being Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. However, both moved up their primaries in order to be important in the upcoming election. In punishment, both were stripped of Delegates in the nomination process causing them both to become pointless. The irony of course is that had they stayed in their normal places, both states would have been not only important, but, much like last Tuesday had the potential to be, critical. Instead they risked being a complete non-factor.
Hillary Clinton claims that since she won both of those primaries, the delegates should be counted and given to her. This is simply unfair, however, as she was the only major candidate on Michigan's ballot, and Barack Obama was given no opportunity to campaign in Florida (where Clinton is already well known, but at the time of the Florida primary, Obama was still relatively new to the nation). And with his ability to speak and the wonders he has already accomplished while campaigning, denying him that opportunity in Florida is completely unfair.
But, what it comes down to is that the delegates in Florida and Michigan might be very important in securing the nomination for one candidate or the other, and, after all, it isn't the fault of the voters that their party leaders tried to up the date against the rules. They shouldn't be penalized.
So, the answer on first glance seems obvious. Let's hold new primaries in each of the two states, with both Clinton and Obama given a chance to make their case to the voters. Oh, if only it were that simple. You see, primaries cost tax payers money. Money that tax payers have already spent on primaries in this very election season. Redoing them (while it seems logical) would require repaying for them, and let's face it, the economy ain't that great right now folks. (Thanks a lot, W. And McCain is promising more of the same, I'm just saying.) According to an article on cnn.com, Michigan's redo could cost approximently $10 million and Florida's could cost upwards of $25 million.
Everyone agrees that delegates in these states might have to count. It's the how that is the question and will bear watching as this race continues.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Thoughts on Last Night's Debate
For Senator Clinton, last night's debate was critical. Now shown running in a statistical dead heat with Senator Obama in the critical states of Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton needed to really trip Barack Obama up, but I don't feel like she accomplished that.
For Barack Obama, all he really had to do was stay on his feet, and I think that he did.
If you asked me who I felt "won the debate", I'd probably say that Senator Clinton did slightly better overall then Senator Obama. I didn't, however, feel like Senator Clinton started out too strongly. She complained about always getting the first question and came off as whiny. She reference a Saturday Night Live skit implying that Barack Obama was getting preferential treatment from the media and it didn't come off very well either. As the debate went on, however, and Tim Russert grilled Senator Clinton on point after point, and she answered smartly and strongly, she definitely ended the night stronger then she began it.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, just needed to maintain the status quo, and he did just that. He didn't blow anyone away last night, but he didn't do anything to disappoint anyone either. The numbers now show him with a rather sizable national lead over Senator Clinton among Democrats and in a National Poll, he is shown to be leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain by a fairly sizable margin. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is shown in a statistical tie with the Republican front runner.
If Barack Obama happens to win next week in either Texas or Ohio (and I certainly believe that it is possible) it will probably be time for Hillary Clinton to see the writing on the wall and get the Democratic party united behind the man who currently seems the best bet to defeat McCain and win back the White House. Will she do that, however? I have no idea. After all, both Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are still running for the Republican nomination despite the fact that McCain losing it now would be nigh on impossible. While Barack Obama's lead is large and would be almost impossible to overcome, on the Democratic side there is still the issue of Super Delegates and Hillary Clinton could conceivably be handed the nomination by them despite the lead that Barack Obama has in pledged delegates. Such a move could fracture the Democratic party however, and I don't foresee Senator Clinton doing that, but I acknowledge that it is a possibility.
If you haven't already, take a look at yesterday's post on how exactly the Texas Primary/Caucus works as well as a list of the 32 Texas Super Delegates. And if you happen to live in Texas, get out and vote early. Early voting is going on until Friday February 29th and then the polls re-open on Tuesday March 4th. Then remember to come back to your polling place that evening for the caucus.
Finally, you should check out these two you tube videos on a young man's feelings on why he voted for Barack Obama.
For Barack Obama, all he really had to do was stay on his feet, and I think that he did.
If you asked me who I felt "won the debate", I'd probably say that Senator Clinton did slightly better overall then Senator Obama. I didn't, however, feel like Senator Clinton started out too strongly. She complained about always getting the first question and came off as whiny. She reference a Saturday Night Live skit implying that Barack Obama was getting preferential treatment from the media and it didn't come off very well either. As the debate went on, however, and Tim Russert grilled Senator Clinton on point after point, and she answered smartly and strongly, she definitely ended the night stronger then she began it.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, just needed to maintain the status quo, and he did just that. He didn't blow anyone away last night, but he didn't do anything to disappoint anyone either. The numbers now show him with a rather sizable national lead over Senator Clinton among Democrats and in a National Poll, he is shown to be leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain by a fairly sizable margin. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is shown in a statistical tie with the Republican front runner.
If Barack Obama happens to win next week in either Texas or Ohio (and I certainly believe that it is possible) it will probably be time for Hillary Clinton to see the writing on the wall and get the Democratic party united behind the man who currently seems the best bet to defeat McCain and win back the White House. Will she do that, however? I have no idea. After all, both Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are still running for the Republican nomination despite the fact that McCain losing it now would be nigh on impossible. While Barack Obama's lead is large and would be almost impossible to overcome, on the Democratic side there is still the issue of Super Delegates and Hillary Clinton could conceivably be handed the nomination by them despite the lead that Barack Obama has in pledged delegates. Such a move could fracture the Democratic party however, and I don't foresee Senator Clinton doing that, but I acknowledge that it is a possibility.
If you haven't already, take a look at yesterday's post on how exactly the Texas Primary/Caucus works as well as a list of the 32 Texas Super Delegates. And if you happen to live in Texas, get out and vote early. Early voting is going on until Friday February 29th and then the polls re-open on Tuesday March 4th. Then remember to come back to your polling place that evening for the caucus.
Finally, you should check out these two you tube videos on a young man's feelings on why he voted for Barack Obama.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Thoughts on Politics
This is always a fascinating time for me, when the world pays attention to our (as in these United States of America) process of electing our officials, and specifically, the race to elect the next "Most Powerful Man in the World". The reason that this election in particular is so fascinating is that there is the possibility that the next "Most Powerful Man in the World" won't actually be a man.
Yes, we are witnessing history in the making, as the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States will for the first time ever on either side of the political aisle, either be a woman (Hillary Clinton) or a black man (Barack Obama).
Would anyone have believed this possible just a few short years ago?
Meanwhile, John McCain appears to be the presumptive Republican nominee, but many Republicans who consider themselves especially "Conservative" aren't very fond of him, propelling Mike Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist minister, into a few big primary wins and a few other surprisingly close races.
Therefore, the Republican race is staying interesting as well. Sure it doesn't have history backing it the way that the Democratic race does, but it certainly has its fair share of drama.
McCain is going to win the nomination on the Republican side, it would take a miracle for him not to. (Although I did enjoy the Huckabee quote, "I didn't major in math in college, I majored in miracles.") The question becomes, when he does win the nomination does he add on a very conservative running mate to appease the Republican base, change his stance on the issues that bother the conservatives the most, or decide that he doesn't need the conservatives at all (which would either fracture the Republican party or cause them to run a super conservative third party canidate)? These questions make the Republican situation fun to watch.
Besides history on the Democratic side, there is the question of Super Delegates. In order to win the Democratic nomination, you need a total of 2,025 delagates, won primarily by the votes cast in Caucases and Primaries. However, there are also 796 Super Delegates (generally Democratic members of Congress, Governers, National Comittee Members, and Party Leaders) who are free to back whomever they choose. Due to how close the race is (at this posting, Obama leads Clinton 1,096 to 977 not counting the Super Delegates) it is unlikely that either canidate will win the requisite number of delagates through the primary process, meaning that ultimately it will be the Super Delagates that decide this election. If Obama continues to hold on to his lead based on the voting public, but the Super Delagates propell Clinton to victory, the Democrats could be faced with a party fracturing possibility as well.
I'll especially be watching the results March 4th in Ohio and Texas (where I am a registered voter and will be exercising my political right). If Hillary Clinton doesn't win both of those states, it will be very hard for her to continue her campaign. If she does win them both, we very likely could be looking at a situation where the Super Delagates decide the election.
Whether you normally follow politics or not, whether you think that they are all a bunch of overpayed publicity hounds or whether you think that they actually care about the people they represent, you can't deny that this is some high drama, much better then the reality shows that are so prevalent across the television landscape. At least it is in my opinion.
Yes, we are witnessing history in the making, as the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States will for the first time ever on either side of the political aisle, either be a woman (Hillary Clinton) or a black man (Barack Obama).
Would anyone have believed this possible just a few short years ago?
Meanwhile, John McCain appears to be the presumptive Republican nominee, but many Republicans who consider themselves especially "Conservative" aren't very fond of him, propelling Mike Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist minister, into a few big primary wins and a few other surprisingly close races.
Therefore, the Republican race is staying interesting as well. Sure it doesn't have history backing it the way that the Democratic race does, but it certainly has its fair share of drama.
McCain is going to win the nomination on the Republican side, it would take a miracle for him not to. (Although I did enjoy the Huckabee quote, "I didn't major in math in college, I majored in miracles.") The question becomes, when he does win the nomination does he add on a very conservative running mate to appease the Republican base, change his stance on the issues that bother the conservatives the most, or decide that he doesn't need the conservatives at all (which would either fracture the Republican party or cause them to run a super conservative third party canidate)? These questions make the Republican situation fun to watch.
Besides history on the Democratic side, there is the question of Super Delegates. In order to win the Democratic nomination, you need a total of 2,025 delagates, won primarily by the votes cast in Caucases and Primaries. However, there are also 796 Super Delegates (generally Democratic members of Congress, Governers, National Comittee Members, and Party Leaders) who are free to back whomever they choose. Due to how close the race is (at this posting, Obama leads Clinton 1,096 to 977 not counting the Super Delegates) it is unlikely that either canidate will win the requisite number of delagates through the primary process, meaning that ultimately it will be the Super Delagates that decide this election. If Obama continues to hold on to his lead based on the voting public, but the Super Delagates propell Clinton to victory, the Democrats could be faced with a party fracturing possibility as well.
I'll especially be watching the results March 4th in Ohio and Texas (where I am a registered voter and will be exercising my political right). If Hillary Clinton doesn't win both of those states, it will be very hard for her to continue her campaign. If she does win them both, we very likely could be looking at a situation where the Super Delagates decide the election.
Whether you normally follow politics or not, whether you think that they are all a bunch of overpayed publicity hounds or whether you think that they actually care about the people they represent, you can't deny that this is some high drama, much better then the reality shows that are so prevalent across the television landscape. At least it is in my opinion.
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